In the high-stakes world of AI, even billions can seem like pocket change.
OpenAI is reportedly gearing up for a new funding round that could value the company at a staggering $100 billion. But in the grand scheme of AI development, this may not be enough money to make an impact.
The Numbers Game
Let’s break down what we know:
- OpenAI is looking to raise billions in new funding
- The round is reportedly being led by Thrive Capital, with a potential $1 billion investment
- Tech giants Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple are rumored to be interested
- This would make it the largest capital injection since Microsoft’s $10 billion investment in 2023
On the surface, these figures are eye-popping.
But they may be smaller than you think, according to Marketing AI Institute founder and CEO Paul Roetzer, who broke it all down for me on Episode 113 of The Artificial Intelligence Show.
A Billion Ain’t What It Used to Be
“Billions doesn’t seem significant enough,” says Roetzer.
Here’s why:
- Massive Burn Rate: While OpenAI’s revenue is skyrocketing (reportedly $3.4 billion annualized), they’re spending way more than they’re bringing in.
- Competitor Comparisons: Elon Musk’s xAI raised $6 billion in its first round. Anthropic’s latest round was around $4 billion.
- Scale of AI Development: The costs associated with developing the next generation of frontier AI models are astronomical.
“Anything south of $10 billion just seems irrelevant,” says Roetzer.
So, What’s Really Going On?
If a few billion dollars is just a drop in the bucket for OpenAI’s ambitions, what could be the strategy behind this funding round?
There are a few possible theories, says Roetzer.
This funding could be setting the stage for a future IPO and/or being used to clear out vested stock from employees. It may also be related to reports that OpenAI is thinking about changing its corporate structure to become more investor-friendly.
The Valuation Puzzle
Even the reported $100 billion valuation is raising eyebrows. Roetzer suggests this might be a pre-money valuation, meaning the company’s value before new investment. If OpenAI ends up raising significantly more—say, $50 billion—the post-money valuation could be closer to $150 billion.
Strategic Partners in the Mix
The potential involvement of Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia in this round makes sense, says Roetzer.
Apple already has a strategic partnership with OpenAI for device intelligence. Nvidia stands to benefit greatly from the training and inference needs of future AI models. And Microsoft already has a significant stake (and say) in OpenAI.
The Bottom Line
As we watch this funding round unfold, it’s clear that AI financing operates on a different scale than traditional tech investments. What seems like an enormous sum might actually be just a stepping stone to even larger capital raises or structural changes.
So, in this world, even billions can be a rounding error. The question now is: what’s OpenAI’s endgame, and how much will it really cost?